The second
tier of the presidential election in Poland has consolidated the painful
existence of a Republic of Two Polands. The one is conservative, Catholic,
elderly, with a Poland First siege mentality, frightened at losing the social
benefits introduced by the Law and Justice Party, such as a decent minimum wage
and a sizable drop in poverty. The other is young, entrepreneurial, socially
liberal, Europe friendly, tolerant and frightened of losing the civic benefits
of living in a western democracy, such as independence of the courts, freedom
of the press and tolerance of minorities.
The current
direction of travel of the present government suggests a deepening conflict
over those civic rights even as the post-covid recession erodes the economic
gains. Only true statesmanship by an uncharacteristically independent President
Andrzej Duda and by a courageous opposition leader Rafał Trzaskowski, ready to
shed his Civic Platform anchor, could prevent the coming confrontation between
the two Polands from exploding into civil conflict and mass unemployment. Their cooperation could unify the country around new national and local climate-friendly and
family-friendly infrastructure projects and around a common policy of
cooperation with a post-Trump USA in strengthening European security against
Russian and Chinese interference.
Letter to The Economist
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