Will Starmer win that landslide?

- It seems such a generally accepted assumption that Keir Starmer will win a well deserved landslide for Labour. Simply put, the fact that Labour could actually win at all, after the massacre of the Brexit Tory landslide in 2019, seemed inconceivable just 3 years ago. Nevertheless, like Neil Kinnock before him after the 1984 disater, Keir Starmer managed to reform the party, stimulate the troops who were hungry for success, and has now brought the party to the brink of victory. However, for Kinnock, that was as far as he could take it. Personally, Kinnock failed and needed to give way to a new leader in 1992 to get the party over the line. This finally happened with Tony Blair as leader in 1997. Which path will Starmer follow? - It does not help that the election has largely been so dull that it has not yet even now impacted on public awareness in day to day activities. Where are the window bills, leaflets handed out in the street, loudspaker events in each constituency? Where is the buzz? It has all gravitated to social media, online propaganda, TikTok messages and TV debates. Unlike Blair, Starmer's personality has not yet lit up the election. Many will decide how to vote as they walk to their polling station. - Could Starmer end up like Kinnock, fallen at the last ditch? In the last days the doubts and the shy Tory factor have been at work. There is still a massive apathy among non-committed voters based largely on which party they dislike or distrust most. Actually, I am sure Starmer will be Prime Minister by Friday, in time for that precious evening with his family. It seems impossibe now with such a visible steady 20% gap maintained for over a year, and only now slightly shrinking, to be wrong. The humiliation of the Tories at the hands, not only of Labour, but the Lib Dems and Reform as well, is a given. However, Starmer, a steadfast, honest and competent person, still does not convince the average floating voter. Yes, the remains of the Labout tribal vote will be out for him, but, even there, former Corbyn Labour voters are slipping away to vote for the Greems, the Lib Dems and for Muslim independents. For Starmer has remained too buttoned up and stressed, too anxious not to lose the family silver in the debate, to really display his vision and his passion to lead the party and the country to victory. - In the end, he will make it, there will be a majority, the Tories and SNP will be humiliated, the Lib Dems may vie with the Tories to take on the mantle of the official Opposition. Yet Starmer's majority may not be as great as some are dreaming. Perhaps a 75 to 100 seat majority? The Daily Telegraph is predicting a majority of 159 seats, but that is deliberate scaremongering to raise the Tory vote. - Perhaps, it woulld be just as well for the majority not to be too large. The oven-ready government programme which will form the main part of the King's Speech, will cover the major first steps announced by Starmer, and will be carried through with discipline and aplomb. But if the majority is too large Starmer and McFadden will not be able to control the restless opinionated and relatively young idealistic backbenchers. After 2 years, if growth fails to materialize, conflicts and even Labour splits may arise. The Tories will be too marginal as an opposition, and the Lib-Dems too soft. (After all, not a word of criticism of each other passed throught the lips of Labour and Lib Dem leaders during the election debates, though the two may end up in serious conflict over protests against housing developments once Labour has simplified the promised new planning laws.) The real opposition could come from Reform, if it does take over the Conservative Party, and they can stage a real populist revolt. It all depends on whether Farage will get his public platform by winning in Clacton. Labour should be shoring up the Conservative vote there. In these circumstances Labour could end up in trouble by the end of the next term. - The Labour domestic green agenda will proceed successfully as long as there is the growth that Starmer is relying on. But here is the problem. There can be no successful improvements in services unless economic growth can fund them. Relying on energy companies and pensions for financial windfall support will not be enough. Growth must come over the next 2 years. But how can Britain expect growth with the threat to Europe from Russia continuing, the brutality of the Gaza war, the growing right-wing radicalization in western and eastern Europe, and the chaos likely to emanate from the USA after a broken Biden has surrendered to Trump. Let us remember too that Trump is protected now by his immunity to prosecution, as a result of the recent Supreme Court ruling. Only Biden can save the day here by retiring immediately to let younger democrats challenge Trump, but can he do that? Out of Starmer's control, unfortunately. He also needs good relations with these more difficult neighbours to find better solutions to illegal migration and the gnawing boat problems. I am counting too on good relations with the liberal governments in Germany and Poland. - So, yes, Labour can get their decent majority on Thursday, if not a bruising landslide, but they face a very bumpy road ahead, trying to provide the steady reform they promised in a chaotic hostile world. I wish them a successful decade in office.