.
Finally, on October 15th, with a
high turnout of 74.4%, the Polish electorate decisively rejected the
authoritarian Law and Justice stranglehold on Polish democracy which had
dominated Polish politics since 2015. In the main cities the vote, which
surpassed even the election turnout of 1989 that ended Communist rule,
resembled a massive carnival, particularly of the younger voters, as whole
families turned up with their children to vote and mark what appeared to them
to be a day of liberation. The actual turn out in Warsaw, the capital, was
84.92%.
It had
nevertheless been an uphill task, as the United Right ruling coalition, of
which Law and Justice Party (PiS) was the essential element, had the genuine
support of the less affluent members of society, especially in the conservative
countryside, whom they could keep on side with generous subsidies and increased
pensions. Also, they had stacked the cards with monopolizing state television
and the local press, which they used systematically to mock and denigrate the
Polish opposition parties and the independent minded cultural elites. Any
diplomatic or economic setback was shamelessly blamed on the main opposition
leader Donald Tusk, whom they vilified as simultaneously a Russian and German
stooge. During the election they circulated government propaganda by issuing
four tendentious referendum questions which accompanied the ballot paper.
Despite all this, and despite the sustained loyalty of the PiS core vote
exceeding 35% of the electorate, the remaining 65% went to parties and
coalitions determined to deny a return to power for PiS and its truculent
leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski.
The main
opposition party, the Civic Coalition, led by Donald Tusk, gained 30.7%, while
its two potential coalition partners in a future government, the centre right
Third Way and the Left coalition, gained 14.4% and 8.6% respectively of the
vote. That gave them a joint 248 seats in parliament against the 194 seats
allocated by the vote to PiS. The far-right Confederation coalition gained 18
seats. Similarly, in the Senate the united opposition, organized this time into
one electoral bloc, won 66 seats to the 34 that went to PiS. As for the biased
referendum, less than 50% of the electorate participated by refusing to pick up
the relevant voting slip at the polling booth, so its results were invalidated.
Despite
this clear opposition victory, the PiS government is in no hurry to relinquish
power. The state television is still in their hands, claiming that PiS has won
the election because it has the largest vote, and still churning out its hate
propaganda against the opposition. Its journalists remain defiant as, in case
of being fired, they are counting on getting jobs in the new right-wing media
empire promised by Kaczynski. The state
bank will continue to be headed by the highly politicized PiS nominee, Adam
Glapinski, until 2028. Also, the state enterprises which dominate the Polish
economic landscape, the Constitutional Court and other legal bodies, and above
all the Presidency, remain in the hands of PiS nominees and still follow
Kaczynski’s diktat. So does the present prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki who
appears to have no intention of resigning. The President has already stated that
the Lower House and the Senate will not meet until early November, and even
then, he is likely to give Morawiecki several weeks to try and forge a
governing coalition, even if such a mission has no chance of success. That is
because, even if the Confederacy changed its mind and was bribed into
supporting PiS, the right would still be 36 seats short of a working majority
in the Lower House.
Under the
Constitution, President Andrzej Duda has to summon parliament within 30 days of
an election. He could do it in less time bearing in mind that the mathematics
of the election result are clear. Opposition
spokesmen claim he is under pressure from PiS to delay the loss of power
and to facilitate finding time for its politicians to destroy compromising
documentation. He has promised to speak this week to representatives of each
electoral list of candidates separately. Initially he will seek to winnow out
support from wavering opposition groups to join in a coalition with PiS, but
this is unlikely to succeed. The three opposition parties are due to issue a
clear joint statement of intent on Tuesday declaring their readiness to form a
government headed by Donald Tusk.
The current
timetable following the opening of parliament would begin with the election of
speakers for both chambers of parliament and be able to elect parliamentary
committees dominated by the three democratic opposition parties. These could
include commissions to investigate evidence of corruption and breaches of the
constitution by the previous government. The President would not have the power
to stop them. There would probably be a last-minute attempt by Morawiecki to
seek support in the lower house for a PiS minority government, but judging by
the current mood this will fail. Ultimately President Duda will eventually be
forced by constitutional convention to invite Donald Tusk to form a government.
This process could well be delayed until the end of November.
In all that
time PiS will still be using TVP state television as a crude method of
propaganda, the nomination of rogue judges by the President would continue, and
the army and police would remain under the political control of the current
ruling party, while the current fanatical Justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro,
who is the initiator of a politically controlled judiciary, remains in charge
of the prosecutor’s office. Eventually Ziobro could be replaced by the new
government, but any attempts to bring the judiciary in line with EU standards,
or to reform the media, could be vetoed by President Duda, who remains in
office until 2025.
Following
the election results the Polish zloty strengthened considerably, and Poland’s
stock market recorded its strongest post-election opening since it was created.
However, there are serious economic problems which the new government inherits.
Some of this stems from the government support for businesses during the
pandemic, but the problems have been augmented deliberately by lowering state
enterprise prices for fuel, dishing out generous social benefits, lowering the
pension age and increasing the defence budget, despite inflation remaining at
9.5%, and while there is negative growth in the GDP and a rising public sector
debt. Much of the current spending is currently channelled through
extrabudgetary funds, which it will be difficult to recover, as these funds are
all run by PiS nominees, many of whom are relatives or partners of PiS
deputies. Admittedly, there is a total of €60bn of EU funding, including €35bn from the European post-covid
Recovery Fund, waiting in the wings for a future Polish finance minister to
claim and distribute, but access to it will be blocked until judicial and media
reforms are concluded, and these too could well be blocked initially by
presidential veto. The opposition parties do not have the required 3/5 majority
in the Lower House to overcome these vetoes.
There could
be similar difficulties from the President in changing the school programme to
drop the nationalist and compulsory
religious curriculums and to reintroduce sex education. It will take considerable
effort to introduce a more liberal law on abortion and to recognize same sex
marriage. President Duda and the hard core PiS opposition would still be
appealing to the more conservative rural electorate to challenge social reforms
were they to be excessively radical. In any case there will also be a broad
spectrum of views on social and economic reforms within the three parties in
the coming coalition. Some opposition leaders have sounded more optimistic
about the future, like the new Warsaw Senator, Adam Bodnar, as they count on
the President eventually succumbing to public pressure over the loss of EU
funding and consideration of his own future. Others hint he could face possible
impeachment for breaches of the Polish Constitution during his presidency.
The road to a more liberal and
democratic Poland remains pockmarked with many obstacles.
However,
whatever these obstacles, the direction of travel is clear. The new
government’s goal will be a more liberal and secular political system
respecting minority rights and an independent judiciary, that would bring
Poland back into the mainstream of progressive and constructive members of the
European Union. Also, its commitment to NATO and to supporting Ukraine in its
struggle with the Russian invasion is likely to be reaffirmed. This election is a turning point not only for
Poland, but for the whole of Europe, as a successful attempt has been made in
the sixth largest European economy to challenge the current trend towards
illiberal politics in Europe, and to keep Europe united in facing the Russian
challenge.
Wiktor
Moszczynski
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